Genomic data shows swine flu infectivity will increase but lethality
will remain low
16 June 2009
Boston-based biotech firm Replikins Ltd has analyzed the most recent
peptide genomic sequence data available and determined that the
infectivity of the H1N1 virus will increase markedly, while its
lethality will remain relatively low for the immediate future.
The company's quantitative analysis of the most recent sequence data
available on PubMed, a standard scientific repository for published
papers, showed an increase of 46% in the Replikin Count* over the past
This points to a marked increase in infectivity in humans. At the
same time, while the total number of replikins has gone up
significantly, their composition appears to have changed in a way that
makes them more closely resemble their counterparts in earlier
The firm, which had predicted a year ago the likelihood of the
current H1N1 outbreak, used its proprietary FluForecast software program
to make these determinations. "The dual differentiation of these
properties may provide advance warning of the future course of H1N1,"
noted Samuel Bogoch MD PhD, chairman and founder of Replikins Ltd.
"Our understanding of the protein chemistry of rapid replication
enables us to develop synthetic vaccines specifically tailored to
destroy or restrict replication of the targeted virus strains prior to
Earlier this month, Replikins announced that it had succeeded in
synthesizing the first H1N1 influenza vaccine, which is now ready for
It used the same approach to produce a peptide H5N1 (avian flu)
vaccine that successfully blocked low path H5N1. It has not previously
been possible to correlate virus structures with a virus outbreak or
cessation of outbreak, let alone to predict six to 12 months ahead of
the outbreak or its cessation.
In 2001, Drs Samuel and Elenore Bogoch first demonstrated this
correlation retrospectively for whole-organism replikin counts in
outbreaks and pandemics of the common influenza strains over the past
* The company's vaccines and predictive tools are based on the
company's discovery of a new group of peptides related to rapid
replication called Replikins, whose increase in concentration in virus
or other organism proteins (Replikin Count(TM) = number of replikins per
100 amino acids) is associated with rapid replication.
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